Preliminary seismic hazard analysis from wastewater disposal-induced seismicity near Musreau Lake, Alberta

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We conducted a preliminary seismic hazard analysis on a cluster of earthquakes associated with wastewater disposal activities east of Musreau Lake, Alberta. For this analysis, we developed a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard model based on Monte-Carlo simulations that account for the non-stationary behaviour of induced seismicity. Under the assumption of a Poisson process, our simulations suggest a 20% probability of an earthquake reaching or exceeding a magnitude of M>4.0 in 1 year; this probability increases to 38% when higher hazard scenarios are considered. We also find a probability of 1% for the Peak Ground Acceleration to reach 380 cm/s2 in a 1-year window, a value in the range to potentially cause moderate to moderate/heavy damages. Despite the observed drop-off in event magnitudes by the end of 2020, the seismic hazard potential in the Musrearu Lake region remains non-negligible. It warrants a future study that, for example, could incorporate physics-based models for improved seismic rate forecasting and seismic hazard analysis.